PICOF-12

[Lead agency for the session presented in bold]

Chair: PICS panel co-chairs

11:30-12:00

(Samoa local time)

Registration and communications testing

Meeting procedures

SPREP to coordinate and provide all supporting details and documents prior.

12:00-12:30

Session 1: Opening and Setting the scene.

• Opening prayer (Mika Perez, Tokelau)
• Opening remarks (Tagaloa Cooper, PMDP, SPREP)
• Opening remarks (Henry Taiki, WMO)
• Meeting objectives (Ben Noll, NIWA)
• Group photo

12:30-12:55

Session 2: ENSO Update and Outlook 

ENSO status and outlook, and introduction to ENSO tracker: NIWA, BoM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP and SPC (15 minutes)

Including - highlights from Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU)

Session 2 discussion (10 minutes)

All PICOF are joint presentations. A representative from the agency in bold will deliver the presentation with support/input from the remaining agencies referenced.

12:55-14:15

Session 3: Looking Back - Review and Evaluation of November to April Climate outlook.

1. Atmosphere

Overview of November to April state of the climate, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook: NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM, SPC, SPREP, and NIWA (15 minutes).

2. Ocean

Overview of November to April state of the ocean, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook: NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA (15 minutes).

3. Tropical cyclones

Overview of the TCs over November to April: NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM, SPC, SPREP, and NIWA (15 minutes).

4. Impacts

Overview of impacts over November to April: NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM, SPC, SPREP, and NIWA (15 minutes).

Session 3 discussion (20 minutes)

14:15-14:45

Session 4: Looking Back Long-Term: Status of key variables

A brief examination of long-term trends for variables of interest to Pacific communities: In April 2023, these will be air temperature and ocean acidification: NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM (Air Temperature), SPC (Ocean Acidification), SPREP, and NIWA (20 minutes).

Presentation:

BoM (Air Temperature) / SPC (Ocean Acidification)

Session 4 discussion (10 minutes)

Tropical cyclones and sea level at PICOF-10

Rainfall and SST at PICOF-11

14:45-14:55

10-min break

14:55:15:55

Session 5: Looking Forward - Seasonal and Intra-seasonal Pacific guidance for May to October 2023.

1. Atmosphere

PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison: NIWA, BoM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, and SPC (15 minutes).

2. Ocean

PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison: NIWA, BoM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, and SPC (15 minutes).

3. Tropical cyclones

PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison: NIWA, BoM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, and SPC (15 minutes)

Session 5 discussion (15 minutes)

15:55-16:25

Session 6: Looking Forward Long-Term

A brief review of long-term climate change projections for variables of interest to Pacific communities: In April 2023, these will be air temperature and ocean acidification: CSIRO, UGCRP, BoM and SPREP (20 minutes).

Session 6 discussion (10 minutes)

16:25-16:30

Session 7: Closing

Chair: Summary of proceedings, feedback from participants.

Next steps: production of PICOF 12 Report and Statement.