Fourth Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF-4)

El Niño conditions likely developing

Over the past several weeks, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have been on the rise.

The warming has been most noteworthy over the central part of the basin and may lend itself to non-traditional El Niño impacts to the Pacific as we head through the summer season. We call this condition "El Niño-Modoki." Modoki is a Japanese word that means same, but different.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

As of late September 2018, regional sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were above average south of 15°S and especially around and east of Fiji.