Vanuatu's Investment in Weather and Climate Information Set to Yield up to 450% Return, Protecting Millions in Damages

A groundbreaking new report for the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department (VMGD) through the Green Climate Fund-supported Climate Information Services for Resilient Development Planning Project (VanKIRAP) confirms that investing in better climate and weather information is one of the most effective strategies for protecting Vanuatu’s economy and communities from the escalating impacts of climate change.

The study, prepared by experts working with the Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Climate Intelligence Program, found that for every dollar Vanuatu invests in strengthening its Climate Information Services (CIS), the nation stands to gain between US$ 1.90 and US$ 4.50 in avoided damages.

The findings of the Climate Information Services Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts for Vanuatu Report confirm the necessity of improving CIS from both a scientific and practical policy perspective.

“The Bottom Line is that investing in our Climate Information Services across our Pacific Islands can save us all millions,” said Mr Salesa Nihmei, Director of Climate Services Information of the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP).

“The work and the research in Vanuatu have shown staggering economic damages if we dont improve these services, and that’s just economic. With better services, we can help protect our people, the most valuable of all that we must do everything we can do, to protect.”

The report shows that early investment in CIS can significantly reduce losses projected from two major global warming scenarios projected for 250 on Vanuatu’s economy. Without effective mitigation, the economic damages are severe.

Under a lower warming scenario of a 1.7° C increase, climate change could decrease Vanuatu’s GDP by USD 130.5 million.  Under a higher warming scenario 2.4° C increase, this decrease could reach USD 276.4 million.

If climate change impacts prove more severe under a 2.4 degrees scenario, dedicated investment in CIS could potentially save Vanuatu up to USD 83 million in avoided damages. These net benefits range up to USD 65 million, or almost seven percent of Vanuatu’s current GDP.

“We’ve made some progress in developing tools for resilience across our Vanuatu communities,” said Ms Moirah Matou, Project Manager of the Green Climate Fund Climate Information Services for Resilient Development Planning (VanKIRAP) project.

“It’s with this investment that we’ve been able to do that, the benefits of which will help our people – not just when it comes to financial savings but also the human costs of these climate change impacts we are experiencing.”

Climate Information Services provides decision-makers—from local farmers to national planners—more accurate, timely data on projected climate variables, including temperature, precipitation, and sea conditions.

The investment from the Green Climate Fund Project is designed to protect five priority sectors: Agriculture , Fishing, Tourism , Infrastructure, and Water.

Rising sea levels pose a major threat to homes, roads, and vital assets near the coast. CIS mitigates this by providing more accurate information on the impacts of sea level rise which enables smarter planning for coastal adaptation and infrastructure investments, reducing the economic shock caused by land and capital productivity loss. 

Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns directly threaten agricultural output. CIS helps farmers adapt and implement mitigation strategies by reducing the negative variations in yields. The analysis specifically modeled how better information protects two culturally and economically important crops: coffee and kava.

“In our ancestors time they would have relied on traditional knowledge and practise, in this era we couple this with the science. And in the age of climate change impacts which we are experiencing, this scientific data and information is a tool that our daily lives, livelihoods and families, now rely on,” said Ms Matou.

This Report provides immense value to Vanuatu’s meteorological and climate community, including the Vanuatu Meteorological and Geohazard Department (VMGD), which co-leads the Van KIRAP project.

VMGD is responsible for delivering the essential climate data, forecasts, and vulnerability assessments that inform decision-making across all sectors in Vanuatu.

"This pivotal report confirms that investing in robust Climate Information Services is absolutely imperative for Vanuatu and the Pacific, offering up to a fourfold return on every dollar invested by safeguarding our communities and economies from devastating climate change impacts." Said Mr. Levu Antfalo, Director, VMGD.

By demonstrating high economic returns , the study validates the crucial work of these climate professionals and confirms that CIS investment is a highly cost-effective solution to reduce disaster losses and protect against future shocks. 

“The analysis confirms the potential for large, negative economic effects in the Pacific, cementing the need for continuous development of robust CIS to better understand climate variability and implement vital mitigation strategies,” said Mr Antfalo.

The Weather Ready Pacific, a Pacific-led solution for enhanced climate services information for a resilient Pacific is a programme of investment now in action and continues to welcome new partners. 

Working across a wide range of partners contributing towards the one goal of enhancing climate information services across the Pacific islands to enable families to prepare for all climate and weather-related events.

“As the severity of climate impacts is expected to be even worse than these estimates—since they don't fully account for the increased intensity of extreme events like cyclones, drought, and flooding—the need for strong CIS is only set to grow,” said Mr Nihmei.

The Climate Information Services Mitigation of Climate Change impacts for Vanuatu can be accessed: http://bit.ly/3WfpEU9

About the VanKIRAP Project:
The Vanuatu Klaemet Infomesen blong Redy, Adapt mo Protekt (VanKIRAP) Project is funded by the Green Climate Fund and implemented by the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) in partnership with the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department (VMGD). The project aims to improve climate resilience in Vanuatu through the development and delivery of improved climate information services for agriculture, fisheries, tourism, infrastructure, water sectors and communities.

For more information, please contact Mr. Sunny Kamuta Seuseu on email: [email protected]