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PICOF 8 - Dry Season - Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum

Virtual April Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF-8)

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Agenda

 Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF 8)

 Virtual (via Zoom) Meeting on 21 April 2020

 

Overall objective: Produce consensus-based, user-relevant climate outlook guidance in real time to reduce climate-related risks and support sustainable development for the coming season for the Pacific Island region.

 

The specific objectives of PICOF 8 include the following:

  1. To present and summarise the climate and ocean observations in the last six months and model outlooks for the next six months;
  2. To compare forecast guidance for the Pacific region and discuss how these are produced in terms of accuracy, utility, weaknesses and strengths;
  3. To build collaboration and partnerships among NMHSs, regional organisations and scientific institutions;
  4. To continue capacity building/human resource development activities for the Pacific region, particularly in seasonal prediction;
  5. To provide a platform for the NMHSs to share and exchange experiences and knowledge on climate and ocean services in the Pacific region.

 

Expected Outcomes:

  1. Improved understanding of the drivers of Pacific Island climate and including the climate and ocean state in the last six months;
  2. Improved understanding of climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for the next six months;
  3. Regional statement summarising the ENSO state, tropical cyclone, climate and ocean patterns from November 2020 and outlooks for these variables to October 2021.

 

Proposed Timeline for PICOF Statement development

 

Monday 15 March 2021: Pacific NMSs notified of upcoming virtual PICOF April 2021

Friday 16 April 2021: Deadline for consortium members to send content to the node lead/co-leads to include in the PowerPoint presentations.

Monday 19 April 2021: Deadline for PowerPoint presentations to be send to the PICS panel secretariat to be circulated to PICS panel members and PICOF participants.

Wednesday 21 April 2021: Virtual PICOF April 2021 teleconference held (see proposed agenda below).

Friday 23 April 2021: Final draft of the PICOF statement sent to the PMC members for approval, deadline for responses Wednesday 28 April 2021.

Thursday 29 April 2021: Virtual PICOF April 2021 Statement released

 

 

Virtual PICOF April 2021

Wednesday 21 April 2021, 13:30-16:30hrs Samoa time

(from Wednesday 10:30hrs Melbourne time, 12:30hrs Nadi and Auckland time, 00:30hrs UTC time, Tuesday 20 April 2:30hrs Honolulu time)

[Lead agency for the session presented in bold]

Chair: PICS panel co-chairs

13:15-13:30

Registration and communications testing

SPREP to coordinate and provide all supporting details and documents prior

13:30-14:00

Agenda 1: Opening & setting the scene

 

 

14:00-14:20

Agenda 2: ENSO Update and Outlook

ENSO Status and Outlook, Status of ENSO tracker

NIWA/BOM/Meteo-France/NOAA-University of Hawaii/SPC/SPREP, 15 minutes

 

Question & Answer (5 mins)

 

14:20-15:15

Agenda 3: Climate Monitoring Section: review & evaluation of November 2020 to April 2021

 

  1. Northern hemisphere rain, air temperature, sea surface temperature and sea level

Review of the last six months, plus evaluation of the respective outlooks. NIWA/BOM/Meteo-France/NOAA-University of Hawaii/SPC/SPREP, 12 minutes

 

  1. Southern hemisphere rain, air temperature, sea surface temperature, sea level and coral bleaching

Review of the last six months, plus evaluation of the respective outlooks. NIWA/BOM/Meteo-France/NOAA-University of Hawaii/SPC/SPREP/RSMC Nadi, 12 minutes

 

  1. Northern and Southern hemisphere tropical cyclones

Review of the last six months, plus evaluation of the respective outlooks. NIWA/BOM/Meteo-France/NOAA-University of Hawaii/SPC/SPREP/RSMC Nadi, 12 minutes

 

  1. La Nina and TC impacts (SPREP), 9 Minutes -Short review of La Niña and tropical cyclone impacts in both Hemisphere

 

Questions & Answers (10 mins)

 

15:20-16:25

Agenda 4: Intra-seasonal to Long-range Forecasting Section: outlooks for May to October 2021

 

  1. Surface Temperature, Rainfall, MSLP

NIWA/BOM/NOAA/University of Hawaii/APCC/SPREP/SPC, 20 minutes

 

  1. Ocean temperature, Coral Bleaching and Sea level

NIWA/BOM/NOAA/University of Hawaii/APCC/SPREP/SPC, 20 minutes

 

  1. North Pacific Typhoons

NOAA/University of Hawaii, 10 minutes

 

Questions and Answers (15 mins)

 

16:25-16:30

Agenda 5: Closing

Next steps, wrap up

 

 

Download Agenda.

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