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Climate Summary - July 2017

Spatial summary
  • The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently neutral. Most climate models indicate the Pacific is likely to remain ENSO neutral for the remainder of 2017. The ENSO Outlook remains at INACTIVE.
  • The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal has been generally weak or indiscernible for the last fortnight. International climate models indicate the signal will remain weak over the next week.
  • The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in June was displaced slightly northwards near and east of the Date Line and suppressed further west. This resulted in suppressed convection for Nauru and the northernmost Kiribati Islands. In the south Pacific, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was enhanced over eastern Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands and between southern Tuvalu and Samoa. Further south, the SPCZ was suppressed over Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga and Niue.
  • Coral bleaching alerts currently exist in the Palau region. Over the next four-weeks, bleaching alerts are expected to persist around Palau and develop in the western and southern Federated States Micronesia, Nauru, and western and eastern Kiribati regions.
  • Seasonal rainfall outlooks for July to September 2017 favour above normal rainfall for Palau and northern Tuvalu. Model outlooks differ elsewhere.

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