[Lead agency for the session presented in bold]

Chair: PICS panel co-chairs

12:00-12:30

(Samoa local time)

Registration and communications testing

Meeting procedures

SPREP to coordinate and provide all supporting details and documents prior.

12:30-13:00

Session 1: Opening and Setting the scene.

• Opening prayer (Arieta Baleisolomone)
• Opening remarks (Tagaloa Cooper - SPREP)
• Opening remarks (Henry Taiki - WMO)
• Meeting objectives (Node for LRF representative) [Download Presentation]
• Group photo

13:00-13:20

Session 2: ENSO Update and Outlook.

ENSO status and outlook, and introduction to ENSO tracker: NIWA, BoM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP and SPC (15 minutes)

[Download Presentation]

Including

highlights from Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU)

• Agenda 2 discussion (5 minutes)

All PICOF are joint presentations. A representative from the agency in bold print will deliver the presentation with support/input from the remaining agencies referenced.

13:20-14:15

Session 3: Looking Back - Review and Evaluation of May-October 2022 Climate outlook.

1. Atmosphere

Overview of May to October 2022 state of the climate, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook: NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM, SPC, SPREP, and NIWA (15 minutes). [Download Presentation]

2. Ocean

Overview of May to October 2022 state of the ocean, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook: NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA (15 minutes). [Download Presentation]

3. Tropical cyclones

Overview of the TCs over last six months: NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM, SPC, SPREP, and NIWA (15 minutes). [Download Presentation]

Agenda 3 discussion (10 minutes)

14:15-14:45

Session 4: Looking Back Long-Term: Status of key variables

A brief examination of long-term trends for variables of interest to Pacific communities: In October 2022, these will be rainfall and sea surface temperature: NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM, SPC, SPREP, and NIWA (20 minutes).

[Download Presentation - NOAA]

[Download Presentation - BoM]

Agenda 4 discussion (10 minutes)

Tropical cyclones and sea level at PICOF-10

14:45-14:55

10-min break

14:55:15:55

Session 5: Looking Forward - Seasonal and Intra-seasonal Pacific guidance for 2022/23.

1. Atmosphere

PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison: NIWA, BoM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, and SPC (15 minutes).

[Download Presentation]

2. Ocean

PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison: NIWA, BoM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, and SPC (15 minutes).

[Download Presentation]

3. Tropical cyclones

PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison: NIWA, BoM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, and SPC (15 minutes)

[Download Presentation]

Agenda 5 discussion (15 minutes)

15:55-16:25

Session 6: Looking Forward Long-Term

A brief review of long-term climate change projections for variables of interest to Pacific communities: In October 2022, these will be rainfall and sea surface temperature: CSIRO, UGCRP, BoM and SPREP (20 minutes).

[Download Presentation]

Agenda 6 discussion (10 minutes)

16:25-16:30

Session 7: Closing

Chair: Summary of proceedings, feedback from participants

Next steps: production of PICOF 11 Report, PICOF Statement, reminder of production deadlines.