Concept Note and Agenda
Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum – 16 (PICOF-16)
23 April 2025
Virtual: via Zoom
The Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF) is based on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Outlook Forum concept.
The PICOF is co-organised by the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), with technical support provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), APEC Climate Centre (APCC), Meteo-France, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Pacific Community (SPC) and the University of Hawaii as members of the Pacific Regional Climate (RCC) Network Node for Long-Range Forecasting in partnership with the Pacific Islands Climate Services (PICS) Panel. The latter ensures the needs of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), and their stakeholders are met. PICOF sessions are co-sponsored by the WMO through CREWS Pacific SIDS Project, funded by the CREWS Initiative and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), UNDRR and CLIMSA. BOM, NIWA, SPREP and SPC support is largely provided via the Australian and New Zealand Aid funded Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific.
Additional information on PICOF and the WMO Pacific RCC Network is available via the Pacific Met Desk Website
Overall objective: To discuss and produce objective, user-relevant regional climate and ocean outlook guidance in real time to support Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) NMHSs produce national climate and oceans climate information for their national stakeholders, with the ultimate aim to reduce climate-related risks and support sustainable development for the coming season in sectors of critical socioeconomic significance.
PICOF will for the first time in October 2024 take a GEDSI approach to further strengthen the relationship between vulnerable groups and NMHSs in the discussions. This will enable them to use the information for decision making at the regional level.
- Review the climate and oceanic conditions in the western Pacific region for the period 1 November 2024 to 23 April 2025;
- Present and discuss long-term trends and projections for selected climate and ocean variables;
- Present monthly and seasonal climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for the western Pacific region for 1 May to 30 October 2025;
- Discuss and review confidence/skill associated with the May to October 2025 outlooks based on the discussions associated with 1-3.
Expected Outcomes:
- Improved NMHS understanding of climate and ocean monitoring and prediction. Enhanced understanding of outlook confidence/skill for the period in question;
- A regional PICOF statement containing climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for May to October 2025 which NMHSs can use as guide to develop their national statements;
- A PICOF-16 report;
- Content for regional partner and NMHSs climate and ocean bulletins as well as media and social media releases.
Agenda
Wednesday 23 April (Samoa time)
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Time |
Agenda Item |
Responsible |
|
11.00am-11.30am (7.00am Palau time, 12.00pm Honolulu time and 11.00pm UTC) |
Registration including morning tea
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SPREP |
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11.30am -12.00am |
Opening and Setting the Scene
Opening prayer
Opening remarks
Group Photo |
MC – Philip Malsale Philip Malsale
PICS Panel/RCC Management Committee Chair |
|
12.00am-12.20pm |
Session 1: ENSO Status and Outlook
Including highlights from Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) |
NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC |
|
12.20pm-1.30pm |
Session 2: Looking Back - Review and Evaluation of November to April Climate Outlook
Overview of November to April state of the climate, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook
Overview of November to April state of the ocean, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook
Overview of the TCs over November to April
Overview of significant weather and ocean events over the last six months a) Micronesian b) Melanesian c) Polynesia
|
(First 3 subsections, 15 minutes each, 4th subsection 25 minutes) NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
SPREP, RMI, Vanuatu and Niue (8 minutes each)
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|
1.30pm-1.45pm |
Break
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|
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1.45pm-3.00pm |
Session 3: Looking Forward – Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks for May to October 2025
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison |
(25 minutes each)
NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
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|
3.00pm-3.45pm |
Session 4: Looking Forward Long-Term
Ice sheet tipping points and sea level rise – Michael Grose, CSIRO
|
CSIRO, UGCRP, BoM and SPREP
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3.45pm-4.00pm |
Session 5: Summary of proceedings & next steps |
PICS panel chair |