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PICOF-13

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Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF) - 13

Forum(s) Objectives:
1) To present and discuss monthly and seasonal 2023/24 climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks;
2) To discuss and determine how monthly and seasonal outlooks are produced in terms of accuracy, utility, weaknesses and strengths;
3) To discuss how NMHSs are currently accessing and assessing the available guidance, making them nationally relevant, tailoring them for specific end users, and disseminating them to users;
4) Climate change projection updates; and
5) To discuss how ENSO impacts the agriculture and fisheries sector, sector climate information needs, how NMHS products can be improved and how NMHS can improve their media and social media products for the community.


Expected Outcomes:

a)Improved understanding of climate and ocean monitoring and prediction information and better understanding of outlook confidence/skill for each country;
b) Regional statement on climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for 2023/24 which NMHSs can use as guide to develop their national statements;
c) Better understanding of fisheries and agricultural sector climate and ocean information needs
d) Improved climate and ocean bulletins, media and social media messages better meeting stakeholder and community needs
e) PICOF Statement and PICOF report

Register Here

PICOF-13 regional statement (issued October 2023)

PICOF-13 Report

…………………………………………….............................................................................................................................

Agenda

Day 1 – Monday 23 October 2023. PICOF -National Meteorological Hydrological Services (NMHSs) Day

Time

Agenda Item

Responsible

8:30am -9:00am

Registration

SPREP

9:00am -9:45am

Opening and Setting the Scene

 

Opening prayer

 

Opening remarks

 

Meeting objectives [download presentation]

 

 

NMS Rep

 

SPREP Rep

WMO Rep

Fiji Government

PICS Panel/RCC Management Committee Chair

9:45am-10:15am

Session 1: ENSO Status and Outlook

 

Including highlights from Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU)

[download presentation]

NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC

 

10:15am-10:45am

Morning Tea and Group Photo

10:45am- 12.25pm

Session 2: Looking Back - Review and Evaluation of May to October Climate Outlook.

 

  1. Atmosphere

Overview of November to April state of the climate, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook [download presentation]

  1. Ocean

Overview of November to April state of the ocean, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook [download presentation]

 

  1. Tropical cyclones

Overview of the TCs over May to October [download presentation]

 

  1. Impacts

Overview of climate and ocean impacts over the last six months: NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM, SPC, SPREP, and NIWA

[download presentation - SPC]

[download presentation - SPREP

(20 minutes each)

 

NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA

 

 

NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA

 

 

NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA

 

 

 

 

 

 

NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA

12:25pm - 12:45pm

Session 3: Looking Back Long-Term: Status of key variables

 

A brief examination of long-term trends for variables of interest to Pacific communities: In October 2023, these will be Tropical Cyclones & Surface Winds and Sea Level

[download presentation Tropical Cyclones]

[download presentation Sea Level]

(10 minutes each)

 

 

NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA

 

 

12.45pm-

1.45pm

Lunch

1:45pm -3:00pm

Session 4: Looking Forward – Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks for November 2023 to April 2024

 

 

  1. Atmosphere

PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison [download presentation]

 

 

  1. Ocean

PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison [download presentation]

 

 

  1. Tropical cyclones

PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison [download presentation]

(20 minutes each)

 

 

 

 

NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC

 

NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC

 

 

NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC

 

3:00pm- 3:15pm

Afternoon Tea

3.15pm –

3.45pm

Session 5: Looking Forward Long-Term

 

A brief review of climate change projections for variables of interest to Pacific communities: In October 2023, these will be Tropical Cyclones & Surface Winds and Sea Level

[download presentation Tropical Cyclone] [download presentation Sea Level]

 

 

CSIRO, UGCRP, BoM and SPREP

 

3.45pm-

4.15pm

Session 6: Annual-to-Decadal Prediction

 

What is annual to decadal prediction? WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for 2021 to 2025 [download presentation]

 

 

Met Office Hadley Centre

 

4.15pm -5.00pm

Session 7: Summary of proceedings & feedback

 

Drafting committees produce Day 1 component of the PICOF-13 Report and Statement including media version of the outlooks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Tuesday 24 October 2023.

Time Agenda Item Responsible
8.30am - 9.00am Registration SPREP
9.00am - 10.00am Welcome and objectives for the day
Session 1: Presentation on key messages from Day 1 tailored for sector representatives
Discussion: opportunity for sector representatives obtain more information
Chair of the PICOF Statement Drafting Committee
10.00am - 10.30am Morning Tea & Group Photo
10.30am - 11.15am Session 2: Sectors work with NMHSs to identify likely impacts for the 2023/24 El Niño event based on impacts associated with past events
Group work by country and sector
Divide into six groups large country agriculture, medium country agriculture and small country agriculture. Same for fisheries (6 groups)
Simon McGree
11.15am - 12.00pm

Session 3: Identify regional stakeholders and co-explore needs. (5min presentation & panel discussion)


Identify stakeholders on the regional level in the agriculture and fisheries sectors space and their needs.
• SPC (agriculture, livestock, pests and diseases)
• PIFON

Gibson Susumu, SPC

 

PIFON

12.00pm - 1.00pm Lunch
1.00pm - 3.00pm Session 4: Review of existing NMHS climate and ocean products and services and explore way forward in terms of improving and/or developing new solutions. Focus specifically on tailored bulletins for the agricultural and fisheries sector
Do they understand the bulletins? Is it the right information? How could the content and presentation be improved? How can the sectors apply existing NMHS information in their operations? Would they? Which of their target 'client' groups would benefit and how? How often would they want it? Every month? Or only when something interesting is happening? Would their client groups understand it or do they need simplified products/social media content?
Simon McGree
3.00pm - 3.30pm  Afternoon Tea
3.30pm - 4.45pm Session 5: Agri-Fisheries Value Chain
Co-development of products
Various UIPs
Patricia Mallam

 

 

Day 3 – Wednesday 25 October 2023.

Time Agenda Item Responsible
8.30am - 9.00am Registration SPREP
9.00am - 9.15am Session 1: Welcome and program outline Program Manager ClimSA
9.15am - 9.30am Session 2: Vanuatu Tailored System of Climate Services of Agriculture Sunny Seuseu
9.30am - 10.00am Session 3: OSCAR and Agro-Met Bulletins: Bridging the Climate Service Gap for Vanuatu Dr Jong Ahn Chun
10.00am - 10.30am Morning Tea 
10.30am - 11.15am Session 4: Best practices and lessons from Van-KIRAP project

Mr. Pakoa Leo

Mrs Moirah Matou

11.15am - 12.00pm

Session 5: Panel Discussion, Beyond Forecasting: Co-Developing Resilience in Vanuatu’s Agriculture and Fisheries

Mr. Pakoa Leo

Mrs Moirah Matou

Mr. Ham Jayven

Dr Jong Ahn Chun

12.00pm - 1.00pm Lunch
1.00pm - 2.00pm Session 6: Discussion on requirements for regional agrometeorological and fisheries bulletins
• SPC Horizon Scan Activity
Dr. Ramona Stephanie O’Conner (SPC)
2.00pm - 3.00pm Session 7: Workshop Evaluation
Workshop evaluation, finalization and release of PICOF statement/outlook (media version)

PICOF Statement Drafting Committee


PICS Panel Chair

3.00pm - 3.30pm  Afternoon Tea

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