PACIFIC ISLAND CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (PICOF) - 7
DATE: Virtual (via Zoom) Meeting on 22-23 October 2020
Overall objective: Produce consensus-based, user-relevant climate outlook guidance in real time to reduce climate-related risks and support sustainable development for the coming season in sectors of critical socioeconomic significance for the Pacific Island region.
The specific objectives of PICOF 7 include the following:
- To present and summarise the climate and ocean observations in the last six months and model outlooks for the next six months;
- To compare forecast guidance for the Pacific region and discuss how these are produced in terms of accuracy, utility, weaknesses and strengths;
- To discuss how NMHSs are currently accessing and assessing the available guidance, making them nationally-relevant, tailoring them for specific end users, and disseminating them to users; and
- To build collaboration and partnerships among NMHSs, regional organisations and scientific institutions;
- To continue capacity building/human resource development activities for the Pacific region, particularly in seasonal prediction;
- To provide a platform for the NMHSs to share and exchange experiences and knowledge on climate and ocean services in the Pacific region.
- To discuss how seasonal forecast products can be relevant to fisheries and oceans sector and how NMHS can work closely with this sector
- Improved understanding of the drivers of Pacific Island climate and including the climate and ocean state in the last six months;
- Improved understanding of climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for the next six months;
- Regional statement summarising the ENSO state, tropical cyclone, climate and ocean patterns from May 2020 and outlooks for these variables to April 2021;
- Gaps and opportunities identified for improving seasonal forecasts and engagement between fisheries and oceans sector and NMSs
Proposed Timeline for PICOF Statement development
Monday 10 August 2020: Pacific NMSs notified of upcoming virtual PICOF October 2020
Tuesday 13 October 2020: Listed agencies to send content to lead agencies to summarize
Tuesday 20 October 2020: Deadline for PowerPoint presentations to be send to the PICS panel members and secretariat.
Thursday 22 October and Friday 23 October 2020: Virtual October 2020 PICOF teleconference held (see proposed agenda below).
Friday 23 October 2020: Draft version of the October PICOF statement circulated to PICS panel for input/comments. Deadline Monday 26 October.
Tuesday 27 October 2020: Final draft of the October PICOF statement sent to the PMC members for approval, deadline for responses Thursday 29 October 2020.
Friday 30 October 2020: October 2020 PICOF statement released
Day 1: Thursday 22 October 2020, 13:00-16:00hrs Samoa time
Agenda 1: Opening & setting the scene
Agenda 2: ENSO Updates
Agenda 3: Looking back- review & evaluation of May-October
Agenda 4: Northern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook verification for 2020
Agenda 5: Looking Forward - Seasonal and Intra-seasonal Pacific guidance for 2020/21
Agenda 6: Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Agenda 7: Introduction of WMO approach to objective seasonal forecasts and tailored products on sub-regional scales
Day 2: Friday 22 October 2020, 13:00-16:00hrs Samoa time
Agenda 1: Opening & Setting the scene
Agenda 2: Pacific case studies on sub-seasonal climate and climate change-linking science to fisheries/marine sector
- Ocean/climate in fisheries/ocean sector in Vanuatu (CSIRO/VanKIRAP/VMGD)
- Future Climate Sectoral Applications: Case study pearl farming in the Cook Islands (CSIRO/SPREP)
- Pearl farming and coral bleaching in French Polynesia (MeteoFrance)
- Regional fisheries and ocean climate information needs (SPC)
Agenda 3: Sector feedback