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Objectives and Agenda PICOF 7


DATE: Virtual (via Zoom) Meeting on 22-23 October 2020

Overall objective: Produce consensus-based, user-relevant climate outlook guidance in real time to reduce climate-related risks and support sustainable development for the coming season in sectors of critical socioeconomic significance for the Pacific Island region.


The specific objectives of PICOF 7 include the following:

  1. To present and summarise the climate and ocean observations in the last six months and model outlooks for the next six months;
  2. To compare forecast guidance for the Pacific region and discuss how these are produced in terms of accuracy, utility, weaknesses and strengths;
  3. To discuss how NMHSs are currently accessing and assessing the available guidance, making them nationally-relevant, tailoring them for specific end users, and disseminating them to users; and
  4. To build collaboration and partnerships among NMHSs, regional organisations and scientific institutions;
  5. To continue capacity building/human resource development activities for the Pacific region, particularly in seasonal prediction;
  6. To provide a platform for the NMHSs to share and exchange experiences and knowledge on climate and ocean services in the Pacific region.
  7. To discuss how seasonal forecast products can be relevant to fisheries and oceans sector and how NMHS can work closely with this sector


Expected Outcomes:

  1. Improved understanding of the drivers of Pacific Island climate and including the climate and ocean state in the last six months;
  2. Improved understanding of climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for the next six months;
  3. Regional statement summarising the ENSO state, tropical cyclone, climate and ocean patterns from May 2020 and outlooks for these variables to April 2021;
  4. Gaps and opportunities identified for improving seasonal forecasts and engagement between fisheries and oceans sector and NMSs


Proposed Timeline for PICOF Statement development


Monday 10 August 2020: Pacific NMSs notified of upcoming virtual PICOF October 2020

Tuesday 13 October 2020: Listed agencies to send content to lead agencies to summarize

Tuesday 20 October 2020: Deadline for PowerPoint presentations to be send to the PICS panel members and secretariat.

Thursday 22 October and Friday 23 October 2020: Virtual October 2020 PICOF teleconference held (see proposed agenda below).

Friday 23 October 2020: Draft version of the October PICOF statement circulated to PICS panel for input/comments. Deadline Monday 26 October.

Tuesday 27 October 2020: Final draft of the October PICOF statement sent to the PMC members for approval, deadline for responses Thursday 29 October 2020.

Friday 30 October 2020: October 2020 PICOF statement released



Day 1: Thursday 22 October 2020, 13:00-16:00hrs Samoa time

Agenda 1: Opening & setting the scene

Agenda 2: ENSO Updates

Agenda 3: Looking back- review & evaluation of May-October

  1. Climate
  2. Ocean

Agenda 4: Northern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook verification for 2020

Agenda 5: Looking Forward - Seasonal and Intra-seasonal Pacific guidance for 2020/21

  1. Climate
  2. Ocean

Agenda 6: Tropical Cyclone Outlook

Agenda 7: Introduction of WMO approach to objective seasonal forecasts and tailored products on sub-regional scales


Day 2:  Friday 22 October 2020, 13:00-16:00hrs Samoa time

Agenda 1: Opening & Setting the scene

Agenda 2: Pacific case studies on sub-seasonal climate and climate change-linking science to fisheries/marine sector

  1. Ocean/climate in fisheries/ocean sector in Vanuatu (CSIRO/VanKIRAP/VMGD)
  2. Future Climate Sectoral Applications: Case study pearl farming in the Cook Islands (CSIRO/SPREP)
  3. Pearl farming and coral bleaching in French Polynesia (MeteoFrance)
  4. Regional fisheries and ocean climate information needs (SPC)

Agenda 3: Sector feedback


Final Report

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